Ankara's pulse is changing every moment.
On the election night, the odds seemed to be on the side of early elections.
However, as the heat of the elections wear off, the odds started to turn towards the coalition government.
There are signals that the business world wants a government, whose backbone is formed by AK Party.
For the last two days, evaluations were being carried out within AK Party.
First, let me reflect my observations regarding the mood of the meeting.
There are analyses made regarding the results of the elections; however, there are mostly projections made towards the future.
Prime Minister Davutoğlu is addressing the ministers and vice presidents; “I want you to see what we have ahead of us and what options we have to form a government. I'm asking for your evaluations on these matters.”
Also, one more observation.
In none of the meetings since the election night, had there been any incidents that would amount to the “sound of a crack”. On the contrary, there are unity and cooperation emphases. Evaluations related with the future are predominating.
The following is the mood dominant in AK Party;
1-In the elections, our nation gave us 41% of the votes and made us the first party. As the first party, we have the responsibility of forming the government.
2-After receiving the duty of forming the government, let's knock on the doors of parties in order to form a coalition government.
When we look at the lobbies of the parties, we can see that the early election possibility is gradually receding into the background, while coalition formulas are coming into the fore.
The primary route of AK Party seems to be MHP. There are emphases on the fact that there won't be any histocompatibility in a coalition with MHP. However, the “senior language” used by MHP requires remaining aloof.
MHP's Chairman, Devlet Bahçeli, made a statement last night which was regarded strange by some segments. However, Bahçeli was giving a message to the circles who wanted to conduct an operation over his party. During the process that led Turkey to the November 3, 2002 elections, Devlet Bahçeli also sensed the danger of an operation over MHP and spoiled the game by making an early election call. On election night, Bahçeli stated that his first preference would be staying as the opposition. However, he didn't shut the doors completely. He gave the “try the other options, then come to me” message to AK Party. In this way, he wanted to strengthen his hand.
As for AK Party; they are of the opinion to start a dialogue process, with starting the process with the Speakership of Parliament.
Of course, meanwhile, MHP will be face to face with a test if they shut the door to the AK Party model.
After the April 18, 1999, Bahçeli preferred to form a coalition with DSP instead of Fazilet Party and DYP. That day, he was accused of bringing the left to rulership; however, he became the center of criticism following his policies regarding Öcalan's execution.
This time, if he shuts the door to AK Party and causes a government to be formed with HDP, he will have difficulty explaining it to his voter base.
On the matter of HDP, MHP is facing two serious question marks.
1-A CHP-MHP government that will be formed with HDP's support from the outside.
2-Or, a CHP-HDP coalition that will be formed with MHP's support from the outside.
If you pay attention, there is not coalition model where MHP and HDP will be involved. Being a government with HDP's support from the outside, or HDP's government with MHP's support from the outside is not an account Devlet Bahçeli can give.
The A Plan of AK Party in coalition partnership is forming a coalition with MHP. By the way, if MHP takes on an irreconcilable attitude, then the B Plan of AK Party is forming a coalition with CHP. Beyond Kılıçdaroğlu's statements, I can see a desire in CHP on the matter of forming a government. CHP doesn't want to become a party that leaves Turkey without a government. They are acting with the responsibility of a main opposition. Besides, the business world also wants a “Big coalition” that will be formed of AK Party and CHP. They want the economy administration to be under AK Party and Turkey to be administered with a wide-based coalition with CHP's balancing role. Because, the markets already accepted the coalition; however, there is no tolerance for instability.
If the A and B plans fail, AK Party also has a C plan. This plan is directed at preventing Turkey from being dragged to instability. It's not time to mention this plan before forcing the other formulas.
In MHP, the dominant mood is; let them try all the other options, but if the duty falls on us, then we won't leave Turkey without a government. However, the organization wants to be included in coalition government.
There is a different view in CHP. In the first days, it was being mentioned more powerfully. However, as the coalition possibility strengthened, and it lost its old power, it's being defended by a certain segment again.
That is the following opinion; “We've put up a struggle to overthrow AK Party. Now, let's not be involved in formulas that will make AK Party the government. Let us try our government options with MHP and HDP”.
This formula is the CHP-MHP coalition with HDP's support from the outside. It's being qualified as a “Neo-nationalist coalition”.
We can sense that there is an attempt to set up a trap for AK Party in coalition calculations. Let me share that with you already.
It's being remarked that there is a strategy directed at isolating Erdoğan by mentioning President Erdoğan's position. AK Party's Group Deputy Chairman, Mahir Ünal declared that the attempts directed at discussing the President's legitimacy were like a red line.
On the matter of Erdoğan, AK Party shouldn't fall into the trap and act clearly and be determined. Besides, the President will not be included in the coalition government like a third partner. Erdoğan will be doing his Presidential duties, while the government will do their government duties.
